14 years later: The spread of drug crime in Mexico

Nicolás Corona Juárez

Resumen


Durante los últimos cinco años la seguridad pública en México ha empezado a ser uno de los principales problemas para la sociedad civil y las autoridades. Analistas han advertido que la inseguridad se esta extendiendo a regiones que anteriormente no eran afectadas. Utilizando técnicas de econometría espacial el presente artículo investiga si y cómo el crimen de drogas en un determinado estado de México se extiende a sus estados vecinos. Se utilizan datos panel para los 31 estados mexicanos y la Ciudad de México durante el periodo 1997-2010. Contralando por las características políticas y socioeconómicas de las regiones de México, se encuentra un efecto de contagio positivo y significativo de los crímenes relacionados al tráfico de drogas. Estos hallazgos toman en cuenta la endogeneidad inherente a la regresión espacial utilizando una estimación 2SLS. Los resultados son robustos a la selección de la matriz ponderadora de rezagos espaciales. Además se encuentra una evidencia débil de un efecto disuasivo en los estados vecinos al estado i al controlar por medidas coercitivas contra las drogas. Esto implica que las medidas de disuasión de las autoridades en los estados vecinos al estado i reducen débilmente los crímenes de drogas en el estado i.


Palabras clave


Drug Crimes; Mexico; Spatial Econometrics; Panel Data

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18381/eq.v11i2.2310

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